Sunday, November 26, 2017

Hiding in plain sight

Published in September was a string of mathematically modeled figures from the original pilot culls in Gloucestershre and Somerset. Or at least the first two years of them.

Pinned out, dissected and calculated into figures that a laymen can understand, Roger Blowey MRCVS has explained to the Veterinary Record, that when the modeled figures are closely examined, the drop in cattle incidents in the two pilot areas is quite startling.

58 per cent in Gloucestershire, and 21 per cent in Somerset. 

Published by the Wiley Online Library, the paper is headed "Assessing the first 2 years of industry led badger culling in England on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle 2013 - 15"

It can be viewed on this link. - [link] The modelers compared several non cull areas of both counties, as similar in size and cattle density as was possible, and then extruded the results.
Screen grab from the paper.

What was probably more amusing, was the that bastion of Badger Protection, the BBC gave this story a whirl on their flagship Countryfile -[link] programme.

But as the figures in Lucy Brunton's paper contain no mention of a 58 per cent drop in cattle incidence of zTB in Gloucestershre after two years with a Gatling gun, one may assume that in some quarters, their  results may prove a tad embarrassing.

Nevertheless, with a new battery in his calculator, Mr. Blowey has done the donkey work, and there it is. A good result. Hidden in plain sight.

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