"Specific powers have already been granted in Wales for inspectors to enter land and obtain a warrant for the purpose of testing for disease. The Order applies to cattle, sheep and goats and all other ruminating animals (including camelids) and swine."Defra (England) may like to take note.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Specific powers for Wales
The Welsh Assembly has issued a document in which they describe a more comprehensive approach to TB.
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4 comments:
Slightly off topic somewhat - but I watched Newsnight last night on which Dr Christl Donnelly - Member of the ISG and so-called specialist in infectious disease modelling - was speaking about Swine Flu .......
The Nation is now doomed ...!
Peter Brady
SETT
It all makes work, Peter.
We won't define such 'work' as being of any particular use, but ........
Mathematical models can be useful if based of actual events that have happened, and then pre-programmed with 'what ifs' for future reference. But to worship them when their basis is 'rough assumption' is stretching credibilty.
Sorry to bang on!
Christl Donnelly is at Imperial College now - and as I thought afterwards is indeed a Professor.
Professor Christl A Donnelly
Her entry on Imperial's website states:-
"Statistical Epidemiology
Having worked on a variety of diseases, my research is probably best described methodologically as synthesizing statistical and biomathematical methods for the analysis of epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases. This approach combines robust parameter estimation and hypothesis testing with the insights provided by dynamical models of disease transmission, host demography and interventions. My research programme aims to improve our understanding of (and ability to predict) the effect of different interventions on infectious agent transmission dynamics and population structure - and thereby better inform the design of control strategies. Without good estimates of epidemiological parameters and knowledge of the associated uncertainty in them, control programmes and preventive measures cannot be designed optimally nor evaluated appropriately."
This must be the same technique used to scientifically guess that Cattle are responsible for circa 70% of the bTB problem and badgers the remaining 30%.
Cheers
Peter Brady
"This must be the same technique used to scientifically guess that Cattle are responsible for circa 70% of the bTB problem and badgers the remaining 30%."
Precisely.
p.148 7:24 of ISG Final Report describes how disease predictions 'cannot be assessed directly from available data'.
(One may enquire, why not? There was enough of it. )
The para goes on to describe an 'assumption' which places 2 parts cattle to 1 part badger as 'roughly, equally important'.
Not in my book.
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